一强一弱 “双硅”走势为何出现分化？

Core Viewpoint - The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have diverged significantly, with industrial silicon prices declining while polysilicon prices have risen sharply [1][2]. Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market - The main contract for industrial silicon (SI2601) closed at 8340 yuan/ton, down 3.47%, breaking previous support levels due to weakened supply and demand [1]. - Analysts indicate that the demand for industrial silicon is expected to decrease as organic silicon companies plan to reduce production in December, leading to a decline in operating rates [1][3]. - The supply side is also facing seasonal production declines, with increased shutdowns in the southwest and potential production limits in the northwest due to environmental issues [1][3]. - The recent drop in coal prices is expected to lower production costs for industrial silicon, further pressuring prices [2]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market - The main contract for polysilicon (PS2601) closed at 55610 yuan/ton, up 3.45%, with some distant contracts rising over 5% due to market speculation and news regarding capacity consolidation [1][2]. - The establishment of a new company for polysilicon capacity consolidation has generated significant market interest, boosting confidence in the polysilicon market [2][3]. - Despite the positive news, the overall demand for polysilicon remains weak, with downstream sectors experiencing losses, leading to reduced production schedules [3]. - Analysts suggest that while there is a potential for price recovery in polysilicon, the market remains fundamentally weak, and any upward movement may be limited [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for polysilicon prices suggests they may not break through the upper limits of the current trading range due to weak supply and demand dynamics [4]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate around cost lines, with attention needed on coal prices and electricity rates in the northwest [4]. - Overall, both markets are facing challenges, with industrial silicon showing potential for limited downward movement due to weakened cost support [4].