财经随笔记：黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.12.10）

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced fluctuations on December 9, with early morning resistance around 4199, dropping to a low of approximately 4170 before stabilizing and rising to a peak of around 4221 during the late session, ultimately closing with a small gain [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting is set to conclude on December 10, with the market pricing in an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which is expected to support gold prices as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [2] - There is a potential risk of a "hawkish cut," where Fed Chair Powell may emphasize inflation risks, setting a higher bar for future easing due to the resilience of the U.S. economy [2][4] - Key focus points include the Fed's dot plot, Powell's press conference, and the wording of the policy statement, which could impact the dollar and gold prices [2] Group 3: Leadership Uncertainty - Trump is conducting final interviews for the next Fed Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the most likely candidate, which could introduce policy uncertainty if his close relationship with the president leads to aggressive rate cuts [3][4] Group 4: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices have been oscillating between 4163 and 4265, indicating a lack of a dominant trend, with the market showing signs of indecision [5] - The four-hour chart indicates a "double top" formation at 4265 and 4260, reinforcing resistance, while a "double bottom" structure at 4163 and 4170 provides strong support, suggesting a range-bound market [7]