中央政治局会议定调2026：宏观政策更加积极有为，“十五五”开局之年“稳中求进”

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China held a meeting to analyze and set the direction for economic work in 2026, emphasizing a stable yet progressive approach to economic growth and the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a stable economic environment while pursuing quality improvements and efficiency [1][2]. - It was noted that the macroeconomic policy will continue to be characterized by a loose stance, focusing more on policy effectiveness rather than sheer scale [1][3]. - The economic growth target for 2026 is likely to be set around 5%, as it marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Insights - The projected new government debt for 2026 is approximately 12.4 trillion yuan, with a fiscal deficit estimated at around 5.9 trillion yuan [3][4]. - Local government special bonds are expected to increase to 4.5 trillion yuan, with a focus on debt repayment rather than strong stimulus for fixed asset investment [3][4]. - Fiscal spending in 2026 is anticipated to diversify, with a significant emphasis on both material and human investments [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to adjust liquidity primarily through reverse repos and government bond transactions, with a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [5][6]. - If there is no significant downward pressure on key economic indicators, the annual interest rate cut may be limited to around 20 basis points [5][6]. - The focus will be on enhancing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than pursuing aggressive new policies [6]. Group 4: Capital Market Development - The meeting indicated a strategic upgrade for the capital market, positioning it as a core hub for supporting the modern industrial system [5]. - Key issues to address in capital market development include the integration of investment and financing, development of derivatives, and strengthening the management of listed companies' market value [5].