白银狂飙，铜油低头：商品市场的“冰与火之歌”

Core Viewpoint - The current commodity market is experiencing a significant divergence, with silver prices surging while oil and copper prices are declining, reflecting different asset responses to anticipated interest rate cuts [1][3]. Silver Market - Silver prices have increased over 4% in a single day, surpassing $60 per ounce, driven by strong market expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver, attracting more investment [3]. - The tightness in the physical market and potential industrial demand, particularly from sectors like photovoltaics, further supports this price increase, positioning silver as a financial asset similar to gold [3]. Copper Market - In contrast, copper prices have retreated from previous highs, indicating market caution ahead of the anticipated interest rate cut. The prior increase in copper prices had largely priced in expectations of rate cuts and supply constraints, such as mine shutdowns [3]. - The market is concerned that an interest rate cut may signal insufficient future economic momentum, particularly regarding China's recovery as a major consumer, leading to a tug-of-war between monetary easing benefits and demand concerns [3]. Oil Market - Oil prices are declining due to tangible concerns over supply excess, with U.S. crude oil production reaching record highs while demand for refined products like gasoline and diesel weakens [4]. - This situation highlights that while monetary policy can influence asset prices broadly, the fundamental supply and demand dynamics of each asset ultimately determine their price levels [4]. Base Metals - The base metals market is also experiencing significant internal differentiation. For instance, zinc faces long-term supply surplus challenges, while demand from key sectors like construction remains weak, putting downward pressure on prices [4]. - Tin is caught between fragile supply chains and potential high-end demand from sectors like semiconductors, while lead prices are constrained by traditional consumption slowdowns and weak downstream support [4]. Investment Strategy - Investors should abandon the outdated notion of uniform commodity price movements and adopt a more nuanced analysis based on individual asset dynamics. The driving logic is shifting from macroeconomic factors to deeper industry-specific insights [5]. - For silver and gold, the focus should be on their financial and hedging attributes, with increased volatility expected. They are better suited for macro hedging rather than chasing industrial demand [6]. - For copper, short-term caution is advised following the realization of expectations, while the long-term potential as an "electrification metal" remains intact. Investors should wait for clearer signals regarding economic demand from China before making moves [6]. - For oil and base metals like zinc and lead, a cautious approach is recommended until clear signals of supply-side contraction or strong demand recovery emerge, as their price movements are more dependent on industry specifics rather than macroeconomic trends [6].