港股下跌，其实没有“黑天鹅”，真正的原因揭晓

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the A-share market contrasts with the sluggishness of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index, which have seen declines amid concerns over liquidity and external economic factors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index have experienced notable declines, with the Hang Seng Tech Index dropping by 1.9% recently, undermining previous rebound efforts [1]. - The Hang Seng Index has risen from 20,000 to 27,000 points this year, marking a 35% increase, but faces resistance at the 30,000-point level, indicating potential challenges for further upward movement without strong support [4]. Group 2: Liquidity Concerns - The primary issue affecting the market is liquidity, influenced by external factors such as the ongoing decline in the bond market and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3]. - The influx of IPOs in the Hong Kong market, following a tightening of IPOs in the A-share market, has significantly impacted liquidity, contributing to the current market dynamics [4]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The Hang Seng Tech Index has underperformed compared to the Hang Seng Index, primarily due to structural issues, with significant declines in new consumption stocks and pressures from competition in the internet sector [5]. - The Hang Seng Index benefits from a substantial presence of banks and high-dividend stocks, which have attracted institutional investors, providing effective support [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The current adjustments in the Hong Kong market should be viewed as a necessary correction to create space for future growth, reflecting both external influences and market demand [4]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index appears to have reached a relatively low valuation, with the potential for upward movement contingent on market sentiment and capital inflow [5].