张尧浠：美联储决议来袭、金价维持震荡等待方向指引

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing fluctuations and is currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for further upward movement, but it must break through the current trendline resistance to avoid a pullback [1][5]. Market Performance - On December 9, gold opened at $4190.42 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4170.19, and then rebounded to a high of $4221.09 before closing at $4208.07, marking a daily increase of $17.65 or 0.42% with a trading range of $50.9 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Factors such as Trump's potential tariff reductions on high-priced goods and positive U.S. employment data have strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. However, ongoing buying support and trader optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts have limited the dollar's upward momentum, providing support for gold [3][5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive safe-haven demand, further supporting gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - The market is currently cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations of a hawkish rate cut, which has led to a slight increase in the dollar index and a continuation of gold's fluctuating adjustments [5]. - It is anticipated that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, but the focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's tone post-meeting, which may convey a hawkish signal to stabilize the dollar while maintaining flexibility for future actions [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows a strong rebound in November, recovering most of October's losses, which enhances the bullish outlook for future highs. However, December's momentum appears weaker, with a need to break above $4400 to open further upward space [6][8]. - Weekly indicators suggest a decrease in bullish momentum, but the main chart remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating potential for renewed strength. Short-term support levels are being monitored for bullish entry points [8][10]. - Daily trends indicate that gold remains in a fluctuating pattern, with short-term advantages for bulls, but direction remains unclear. Key resistance levels are at $4265, while support is noted around $4200 or $4180 [10][11].