航空：步步为营，峰回路转

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a significant supply-demand reversal in 2026, transitioning into a state of supply shortage after years of low supply growth and gradually absorbing excess capacity [1][2]. Supply - The effective supply remains tight due to insufficient capacity and engine disruptions, with an expected ASK growth rate of 2.7% in 2026. Boeing and Airbus are recovering capacity slowly, currently at about 70% of pre-pandemic levels, and global supply chain issues persist [2][4]. - Aircraft delivery delays are anticipated to continue into 2026, with Boeing and Airbus's production rates for key models (B737MAX and A320NEO) only reaching approximately 70% of their peak levels [4][5]. - Engine issues are expected to further reduce the number of available aircraft, with an increase in grounded planes due to technical and quality problems with major engine models [7][10]. Demand - Demand remains resilient, with an expected growth rate of about 5% in 2026, constrained by supply limitations. The return of business travelers is expected to support this growth [2][24]. - The domestic aviation demand growth rate is projected to outpace that of rail, indicating strong resilience and some irreplaceable aspects of air travel [29][31]. - The average travel distance for domestic flights has increased, reducing the competitive edge of high-speed rail against aviation [29][31]. Ticket Prices - Ticket prices are expected to rise moderately in 2026, approaching 2019 levels, with seasonal variations where off-peak price increases may exceed those during peak seasons [2][49]. - The industry is likely to see a shift in focus towards improving off-peak performance, with potential for greater price increases during these periods due to tighter supply [49][53]. Capacity Utilization - The passenger load factor is projected to reach 87% in 2026, an increase from 85% in 2025, driven by tighter supply conditions [38][44]. - The high load factors in 2025 were partially due to pricing strategies aimed at increasing volume, while the anticipated high load factors in 2026 will be a result of supply constraints [38][44]. Potential vs. Actual Demand - While potential demand is expected to grow at a rate exceeding 5%, actual demand growth is constrained to about 5% due to supply limitations [39][48]. - The elasticity of actual demand relative to GDP growth is expected to decrease in 2026, indicating unmet potential demand and a clear supply-demand imbalance in the aviation market [39][44].