SCS(SH:601555) 智通财经网·2025-12-10 02:00Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities emphasizes a focus on certainty in stock selection, advocating for a bottom-up approach to capture valuation switching benefits, particularly in leading snack companies and quality retail chains, while also highlighting opportunities in the health and wellness sector and the potential for recovery in the liquor and dairy industries by 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Consumer Sector Analysis - The consumer sector has been under long-term pressure, but marginal improvements are expected, with a relatively optimistic outlook for 2026 [2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been running at low levels since September 2020, with food, tobacco, and alcohol experiencing a long-term deceleration since 2021, and negative growth in food and alcohol price indices since mid-2023 [2]. - Retail sales growth has remained low, between 2%-5% year-on-year since August 2021, indicating ongoing consumer pressure [2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy for year-end positioning focuses on valuation switching, driven by performance growth, with an emphasis on continuous growth and recovery from difficulties as key dimensions [3]. - The liquor sector is highlighted as a critical area, with the need for "clearing out" being essential for upward movement in the mid-cycle [3]. - There is potential for recovery in the restaurant and related sectors, with some companies already showing signs of bottoming out and improvements in same-store sales and table turnover [3]. Group 3: Stock Selection Directions - Five key areas for stock selection have been identified: 1. Functional food and health products as a core area for innovative growth 2. Leading snack companies benefiting from supply chain improvements and product-channel resonance 3. Quality retail chains with expansion potential supported by efficiency and effective scenarios 4. Beverage leaders with long product life cycles 5. Liquor and dairy sectors expected to recover from difficulties [4]. - The snack industry is undergoing significant changes, with new stable patterns emerging that favor leading companies with strong R&D capabilities [4]. - The health products sector is gaining attention due to its recognized growth potential and expanding young consumer demographics [4].