Group 1 - The global economy is expected to show resilience beyond initial forecasts for 2025, with the AI technology cycle continuing and policies remaining consistent [1] - By 2026, the macroeconomic environment is anticipated to return to an orderly state, with economic growth exhibiting a degree of resilience and interest rates likely to remain at restrictive levels [1] - The core logic of asset allocation is shifting towards a balance between offensive and defensive strategies in an environment characterized by high growth resilience, inflation, and interest rates [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong stocks are expected to maintain profitability, with a "slow bull" market continuing; valuations are in a reasonable range, offering strong cost-effectiveness [2] - The liquidity environment is improving, with southbound and overseas capital returning; structural highlights of the Chinese economy, such as AI technology and domestic demand recovery, are expected to start reflecting in profitability [2] - In the US stock market, the "bubble" is difficult to disprove in the short term, and a style shift is anticipated; tech giants benefiting from the AI revolution and capital expenditure expansion still have valuation support due to strong earnings growth and technological barriers, but caution is advised regarding investment slowdown and credit risks [2] - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds is expected to remain in a "hard to lower" pattern, with long-term rates under pressure due to inflation, fiscal, and policy uncertainties, leading to a potential steepening of the yield curve [2]
交银国际：明年港股盈利可期 预计“慢牛”延续