上半年最后2次！市场降低“明年美联储降息预期”，2026将成全球央行“政策拐点”？

Core Viewpoint - The market is reducing expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, while major central banks like the ECB and the Bank of Canada are facing rising rate hike expectations, potentially reshaping the global monetary policy landscape by 2026 [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Expectations - Traders now expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by only 50 basis points in 2026, primarily concentrated in the first half of the year, a significant reduction from previous expectations of three cuts [1][2]. - The SOFR futures contracts indicate a narrowing of the expected rate cut path, with the spread between December 2025 and December 2026 contracts reaching the smallest negative value since June [2]. - Market sentiment is shifting towards a neutral stance among Treasury investors, with the 10-year Treasury yield at its highest level since September, indicating a decline in bullish momentum [2]. Group 2: Inflation Risks and Policy Implications - Analysts suggest that persistent inflation pressures could undermine the credibility of the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation measures, raising the risk of rate hikes in 2026 [2][3]. - The expectation of fiscal stimulus and unexpected growth in corporate earnings may contribute to higher inflation risks, complicating the Fed's rate cut strategy [3][4]. Group 3: Global Central Bank Divergence - In contrast to the Fed's expected rate cuts, several major central banks are anticipated to raise rates, with the ECB's likelihood of rate hikes surpassing that of cuts by 2026 [5]. - The divergence in monetary policy is partly attributed to the lesser-than-expected impact of the Trump trade war on U.S. trading partners, which may exacerbate the decline of the U.S. dollar [5].