9月份我国进口铁矿创单月历史新高，专家提示避免盲目跟风

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the trends in China's iron ore imports for 2025, highlighting a "low first, high later" trajectory influenced by extreme weather and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Import Trends - In the first half of 2025, China's iron ore imports are expected to decline due to extreme weather, with major mining companies experiencing a significant drop in import volumes [1]. - Starting from the third quarter, the shipping volumes from the four major mining companies are gradually returning to normal, leading to a continuous increase in iron ore imports from June to October 2025 [1]. - In September 2025, iron ore imports increased by 11.7% year-on-year, reaching a historical monthly high, while in October, imports of iron ore and its concentrates totaled 11.131 million tons, up 7.2% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite strong iron ore imports this year, stock levels at major Chinese ports are above seasonal averages but still below 2024 levels, indicating a complex market situation [1]. - Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia suggest that the declining profit margins of Chinese steel mills and low crude steel production are contributing to downward pressure on iron ore prices [1]. - A recent ban on certain supplies from BHP Group has temporarily supported prices, but its potential lifting could lead to an influx of products into the market, exacerbating downward pressure [3]. Group 3: Price Dynamics - The current rise in iron ore prices is attributed to speculative trading and capital market activities rather than genuine demand, according to the China Mineral Resources Research Institute [3]. - Accumulating port inventories and persistently weak actual demand are expected to exert substantial pressure on price increases, indicating that reliance on short-term speculation is insufficient to drive long-term price trends [3]. - Industry participants are advised to discern market signals rationally and remain cautious of prices deviating from actual supply and demand conditions to avoid following trends blindly [3].