黄金价格还会上涨吗？知名经济学家盘和林：预测金价要看通胀和竞品

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves are on the rise, with significant implications for the gold market in 2026 [1] - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from October, representing a growth rate of 0.09% [1] - China's gold reserves stood at 7.412 million ounces at the end of November, marking an increase of 30,000 ounces, continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of gold accumulation by the central bank [1] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that gold had an outstanding performance in 2025, achieving over 50 historical highs and a cumulative increase of over 60% [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, gold prices may experience moderate increases if economic growth slows and interest rates decline; however, a significant rise could occur if global risks escalate, leading to a severe economic downturn [1] Group 3 - Economic expert Pan Helin suggests that predicting gold prices can be approached from two angles: inflation and competing assets [5] - Inflation is a key factor, as gold tends to rise when currency value declines; particularly in stagflation scenarios, where economic conditions are poor, leading to increased demand for gold [5] - The second angle involves analyzing competing assets like the US dollar, US Treasury bonds, and Bitcoin; if these assets face issues, demand for gold may increase significantly [5][6] Group 4 - The outlook for gold prices is contingent on two main factors: inflation trends influenced by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, and the performance of competing assets [6] - Current monetary policies, especially if they remain accommodative, provide support for gold prices; however, the potential for further price increases may be limited due to already high valuations [6]