黄金ETF持仓量报告解读（2025-12-10）美元需求削弱 黄金再回4200

Group 1 - As of December 9, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, has a holding of 1,047.97 tons, decreasing by 1.14 tons from the previous trading day [2] - On December 9, spot gold fluctuated upwards, surpassing $4,200 per ounce, with a daily high of $4,220.89 and closing at $4,208.09, an increase of $17.61 or 0.42% [2] - Market risk appetite has improved, reducing the demand for the US dollar, which counteracts the positive impact of favorable US economic data on gold prices [2] Group 2 - The US labor market data showed better-than-expected results, with the ADP report indicating an average weekly addition of 4,750 jobs in the private sector for the four weeks ending November 22, reversing previous negative growth [3] - Job vacancies rose to 7.67 million in October, a five-month high, but hiring numbers decreased by over 4% month-on-month, while layoffs increased to 1.85 million, the highest since early 2023 [3] - Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to implement a "hawkish rate cut" this week, with guidance indicating a higher threshold for further easing next year, which could significantly impact gold prices [3] Group 3 - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reported that the recent rise in gold prices since early September has been amplified by speculative buying from retail investors, deviating from gold's traditional safe-haven asset behavior [3] - BIS compared the current situation to 1980, warning of a potential sharp correction in gold prices [3] - However, analysts from Deutsche Bank noted that the current market environment differs significantly from 1980, as the previous price drop was driven by a substantial increase in US key interest rates, which is not expected in the current cycle [4] Group 4 - From a technical perspective, gold maintains an upward trend, but its potential for further increases appears limited, with daily charts showing fluctuations within a recent range [4] - The 20-day moving average is above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bullish trend, while momentum indicators are slightly rising in positive territory [4] - The 4-hour chart indicates that momentum indicators are below the zero line and continue to decline, with the relative strength index at a neutral position, suggesting a lack of clear direction [5]