纽交所中国区主管葛辰皓：AI预计仍是2026美股增长的原动力

Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - The US stock market demonstrated resilience in 2025, with the S&P 500 index achieving approximately 15% growth year-to-date as of December 5 [1] - The volatility in the market earlier in the year, driven by Fed interest rate decisions and tariff discussions, subsided in the third quarter as clarity emerged in trade negotiations, leading to a market recovery [1] - The third-quarter earnings reports from S&P 500 companies showed robust profit growth, contributing to recent market gains [1] Group 2: IPO Market Insights - The IPO market in the US is characterized as a "recovery year," with the number of IPOs and total financing exceeding the entire year of 2024, marking the third consecutive year of growth since 2022 [3] - Approximately 70% of IPOs this year saw price increases on their first day, with over 60% of companies currently trading above their issue price [3] - Notable IPOs in the fintech sector included Circle, which raised over $1 billion with a first-day increase of about 160%, and Bullish, which also raised over $1 billion [3] Group 3: Factors Influencing IPO Recovery - Key factors behind the IPO recovery include the AI wave, US government innovation policies, and potential tax incentives for companies [4] - Despite market fluctuations in April and May causing delays for some large international projects, many quality projects successfully capitalized on market opportunities [4] - Chinese companies are showing interest in US listings, with examples like Anta's Amer Sports and NIO raising over $1 billion each, although their IPO timelines are affected by regulatory processes [4] Group 4: Future Outlook for the Market - The market outlook for 2026 is optimistic, driven by expected alleviation of policy uncertainties, continued AI-driven growth, and the potential for increased liquidity under a new Fed chair [5] - AI is anticipated to expand its impact beyond large enterprises, benefiting a wider range of industries and becoming a new investment theme [5] - The new Fed chair's alignment with previous administration policies could enhance market liquidity, supported by other economic policies [5] Group 5: Role of Exchanges - The role of exchanges is evolving, with the NYSE maintaining its unique market functions, such as providing liquidity through designated market makers [6] - Exchanges serve as platforms for corporate communication and regulatory engagement, exemplified by the SEC's recent initiatives to simplify listing processes [6] - The NYSE is also fostering international collaboration through events like "International Day," enhancing cross-border communication and partnerships [7]