消费为什么总拉不动？央行报告点破关键：国民收入分配需调整

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese consumption dilemma is not merely a cyclical issue but a deep-seated structural deviation, as highlighted in the 2025 Q1 central bank monetary policy report, which emphasizes the importance of consumption [1] Economic Structure - China's final consumption expenditure accounts for a significantly lower proportion of GDP compared to developed countries like the US and Japan, with government net assets constituting 38.6% of total social assets, far exceeding the OECD average of below 10% [3] - High state-owned capital ratios lead to increased corporate savings, suppressing income distribution towards households and directing social wealth more towards capital rather than labor, which directly restricts the enhancement of household consumption capacity [3] Consumption Trends - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods growth slowed to 3.5%, lagging behind GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points, with the household consumption rate at only 46.8%, 15 percentage points lower than the global average [3] - Service consumption in China is notably low, comprising only 26% of total consumption in 2024, compared to 55% in the US, with sectors like healthcare, education, and entertainment not fully capitalizing on urbanization [5] Urbanization and Income Disparity - The urbanization rate for China's permanent population is approximately 67%, while the registered urbanization rate is around 48%, indicating a significant portion of the population is unable to fully enjoy urban service consumption benefits [7] - The income distribution structure is imbalanced, with the proportion of wage income to disposable income at only 56.46%, lower than most developed countries, and a significant urban-rural consumption disparity [7] Savings Behavior - The disposable income for residents is only 38% of urban income, with property income making up less than 3%, leading to a dual pressure effect where high housing costs diminish consumption capacity [9] - By the end of 2023, China's pension assets totaled approximately $2.27 trillion, significantly lower than the US and Japan, with pension assets constituting only 12.8% of GDP compared to over 100% in major developed countries [9] Consumer Confidence and Spending - The preventive savings motivation among consumers is strong, with savings rates consistently exceeding 40%, much higher than in developed nations, driven by high medical and educational expenses [11] - Public service supply shortages in healthcare, education, and pensions exacerbate the tendency for high preventive savings rather than consumption [13] Supply Chain Issues - The current supply-side issues are characterized by a scarcity of high-end supply and an excess of low-end supply, lacking high-quality and cost-effective products, which weakens the ability of supply to create demand [13] - Traditional consumption drivers are burdened by high expenditures on housing, education, and healthcare, which together consume over 40% of total spending [13] Market Dynamics - The supply gap in high-end consumer categories like tourism and smart home products is evident, with a 40% shortfall in high-end accommodation supply and low market penetration for smart toilets [15] - The rural-urban divide leads to significant inefficiencies in the agricultural supply chain, with a 20% loss rate in agricultural product circulation and cold chain logistics penetration at only 20% [15] Consumer Environment - Consumer trust is undermined by issues such as algorithmic price discrimination, leading to a lack of willingness to engage in new consumption patterns, with a 32.62% year-on-year increase in consumer complaints [17] - Current policy tools primarily focus on consumption subsidies, lacking income support policies, and the effectiveness of stimulus measures like "trade-in" programs is diminishing [17]