戴德梁行：预计明年香港楼价升幅约5% 租金升幅放缓至3%

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential market is expected to maintain transaction volumes similar to this year, with property prices projected to increase by approximately 5% in the coming year [1][2] Group 1: Residential Market Trends - The overall residential property price index recorded a 3.3% increase from March to October, indicating a recovery from the earlier downturn, with a year-to-date increase of 1.8% [1] - The residential rental index has risen by 4% year-to-date, driven by demand from foreign professionals and non-local students, which supports both transaction volumes and prices [1] - The number of residential sale agreements has exceeded 5,000 for nine consecutive months since March, with an estimated 16,400 transactions in Q4, representing a 9% year-on-year increase and a total of approximately 62,000 transactions for the year, up 17% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The reduction in interest rates by banks following the Federal Reserve's lead has lowered entry barriers and borrowing costs, further stimulating residential demand [2] - Developers have been actively launching new projects to reduce inventory, with approximately 33% of total residential transactions in the first ten months being new sales [2] - The luxury property market is expected to see increased activity, potentially influencing the mid-sized market as well, with a gradual start to the "upgrade" market anticipated next year [2]