新能源汽车购置税减半征收倒计时，17家主流车企推出“兜底”方案

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) market is experiencing a significant shift as the long-standing purchase tax exemption policy is set to change, prompting automakers to introduce "tax guarantee" schemes to encourage consumers to purchase vehicles before the policy change takes effect [3][5][6]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The purchase tax exemption for NEVs, in place since September 2014, will transition to a 50% reduction starting January 1, 2026, with a cap of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [5][9]. - Over 17 major automotive brands have launched "tax guarantee" programs, promising to cover the tax difference for consumers who place orders before the end of 2025 but receive their vehicles in 2026 due to manufacturer delays [3][6][7]. - The cost difference for consumers purchasing NEVs is significant; for example, a vehicle priced at 300,000 yuan will save approximately 26,500 yuan in taxes if purchased in 2025, compared to 13,300 yuan in 2026, resulting in a 13,200 yuan increase in cost [5][6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The introduction of "tax guarantee" programs is a strategic response to potential consumer hesitation due to the impending tax changes, with many customers now preferring to order vehicles this year to avoid higher costs [6][7]. - The average delivery time for popular models is around 10 weeks, which could lead to order cancellations without the tax guarantee, thus stabilizing orders for manufacturers [8][9]. - The market is witnessing a shift from reliance on policy incentives to a focus on internal market dynamics, with NEV sales surpassing 50% of total new car sales for the first time in October 2025 [9][10]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The reduction of policy support indicates a transition to competition based on technological innovation, cost control, and brand value rather than subsidies and price wars [12]. - The new regulations set to take effect in 2026 will raise the bar for qualifying NEVs, potentially affecting around 30% of current plug-in hybrid models that may not meet the new standards [10][11]. - Industry experts predict a slowdown in sales growth for 2026, with wholesale volumes expected to increase by only 3% compared to 11% in 2025, reflecting the challenges posed by the changing subsidy landscape [11][12].