泡泡玛特市值跌没了一个海天味业：挤泡沫还是被做空？

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's stock price has significantly declined, dropping 44% from its August peak, leading to a market value loss of over 200 billion HKD, comparable to a major company like Haitian Flavoring and Food [1][2] Stock Performance - In the last seven trading days, Pop Mart's stock has only seen two days of gains, with significant declines on other days, reflecting a market capitalization reduction of over 40% since the peak on August 29 [1][2] - The stock was initially listed at 80 HKD per share in late 2020, fell below 10 HKD in late 2022, and reached a high of 339.8 HKD on August 29, 2025 [1] Market Concerns - Concerns have arisen regarding Pop Mart's sales performance during the upcoming Black Friday promotions in the U.S., with expectations that the market interest in new products may not meet previous levels [2][4] - The premium on hidden versions of products has decreased by over 50%, and regular versions are selling below official retail prices on secondary markets [4] Growth and Revenue Projections - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that while there is a strong growth driven by the Labubu IP, there are significant risks related to supply and demand imbalances [5] - Two contrasting scenarios for future growth have been proposed: one predicting a 20% decline in domestic revenue and a 10% decline in overseas revenue by 2026, and another forecasting a 30% increase in domestic revenue and a 50% increase in overseas revenue [5] Business Model and Strategy - Pop Mart has successfully transitioned from a retail company to an IP incubation operation, creating a matrix of popular IPs, including Labubu and Crybaby [8][10] - The company has increased its production capacity from an average of 10 million units per month to 50 million units by the end of the year, significantly boosting revenue and profit [9][10] Challenges of Mass Production - The rapid expansion of production capacity may dilute the brand's appeal, as products that were once scarce become widely available, potentially transforming them into mass-market items [10][11] - The company is advised to shift from explosive growth to sustainable growth, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the "cool" and "scarcity" attributes of its products [12][13] Comparison with Disney - Pop Mart's business model is still in its early stages compared to Disney, which has diversified into entertainment, sports, and experiential sectors, generating substantial revenue [15][18] - Disney's success is attributed to its ability to create emotional connections through IP and monetize them across various platforms, a strategy that Pop Mart has yet to fully adopt [19][20] Future Directions - To evolve into a "emotional consumption ecosystem," Pop Mart needs to explore new markets and develop business areas closely related to its core IPs, moving beyond just selling toys [20][21][22]