光大证券:首次覆盖老铺黄金予“买入”评级 目标价804.64港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-10 07:34

Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights Laopu Gold (06181) as a pioneer and leader in the ancient gold concept in China, positioning itself in the high-end market and continuously deepening its engagement. The rising gold prices in 2023 have increased consumer demand for gold as a means of investment and preservation of value, leading to record-high performance for Laopu. The company is given a target price of HKD 804.64, with a projected PE ratio of 27/20/15 for 2025-2027, and an initial "Buy" rating is assigned [1]. Industry Insights - The ancient gold segment is experiencing sustained growth, with younger consumers driving gold jewelry consumption. Despite a general decline in overall gold jewelry consumption due to rising prices, niche markets like ancient gold and national trends are emerging, achieving counter-cyclical growth. The market size for gold products in China is projected to reach CNY 568.8 billion in 2024, with the ancient gold segment's share increasing from 4% in 2018 to 30% in 2023, and expected to reach 52% by 2028, amounting to CNY 421.4 billion [1]. Competitive Positioning - Laopu Gold differentiates itself in the high-end ancient gold market, avoiding direct competition with traditional brands that offer generic gold products. As of June 2025, Laopu's consumer overlap with luxury brands like LV and Cartier is 77.3%, with approximately 480,000 members. The company has developed superior ancient gold craftsmanship over the years, creating a strong brand moat that is difficult for competitors to replicate. Laopu's products command higher premiums, with a gross margin of 38.1% and a net margin of 18.4% in the first half of 2025 [2]. Product and Growth Strategy - Laopu's long-standing presence in the ancient gold sector, combined with rising gold prices, has allowed it to gain visibility and achieve quality growth. Key factors include: 1) Product designs that incorporate classic cultural elements, appealing to younger consumers and making gold a fashionable item; 2) Store locations in high-end shopping districts with exquisite displays, leading to significant same-store revenue growth; 3) Accelerated online penetration through affordable products that attract younger demographics, fostering rapid growth and supporting offline development [3]. Financial Projections - For 2024, Laopu is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 8.506 billion, a year-on-year increase of 167.5%, and a net profit of CNY 1.473 billion, up 253.9%. In the first half of 2025, revenue and net profit are projected to grow by 251.0% and 285.8%, respectively. The company’s revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are CNY 26.744 billion, CNY 36.168 billion, and CNY 46.094 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 214.4%, 35.2%, and 27.4%. Net profits are expected to be CNY 4.763 billion, CNY 6.541 billion, and CNY 8.449 billion, with growth rates of 223.3%, 37.3%, and 29.2%. The projected EPS for these years are CNY 27.00, CNY 37.08, and CNY 47.90, with current PE ratios of 21, 15, and 12 [4].