化工“稳增长”举措趋于立体化，化工品价格有望随之修复吗？

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" policies have begun to show effects in the petrochemical industry, with signs of price stabilization and recovery in the Producer Price Index (PPI) [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and PPI Data - In October, the overall industrial PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing compared to September, and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise of the year [1]. - The PPI decline in key sectors such as the petroleum industry was -5.2%, an improvement of 1.9 percentage points from the previous value, while the chemical industry remained unchanged at -4.4% [1]. - The manufacturing of chemical raw materials and products saw a year-on-year decline of -5%, with a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. Group 2: Policy Measures for Industry Growth - The "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to enhance high-end supply and promote technological innovation, focusing on sectors like electronic chemicals and high-performance fibers [2][3]. - The plan emphasizes a systematic approach, balancing quantity and quality, to optimize supply-demand dynamics and drive high-quality development [2]. - Key measures include controlling new refining capacity, optimizing existing production through upgrades, and implementing safety improvements across the industry [3][6]. Group 3: Capacity Management and Optimization - The policy framework includes a three-pronged management system focusing on controlling new capacity, reducing existing capacity, and managing production processes to achieve supply-demand balance [3][6]. - The plan aims to curb excessive structural risks by regulating the scale and timing of new capacity for critical raw materials like ethylene and paraxylene [3][6]. Group 4: Quality Enhancement Directions - The strategy targets four key areas for enhancing industry competitiveness: high-end development, green initiatives, safety improvements, and digital transformation [7][9]. - High-end development focuses on shifting the competitive landscape from cost and scale to technology and added value, addressing the challenges of low-end product competition [7]. - Green initiatives aim to promote low-carbon processes and circular economy practices, with a focus on developing standards for carbon footprint accounting [9][11]. Group 5: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to accelerate its transformation, with capital expenditures declining and older facilities being phased out, leading to improved supply-side conditions [12]. - The PPI and inventory trends are anticipated to show positive changes by 2025, with potential demand growth in new materials and technologies by 2026 [12]. - Investment tools such as chemical industry ETFs are available, providing exposure to leading companies in the petrochemical and basic chemical sectors [13].