Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is expected to face significant challenges in 2026, with experts predicting a slowdown in growth rates, potentially leading to negative growth for many companies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The growth rate for the automotive market in 2025 is estimated to be around 4%, while 2026 may see a further decline to 3.2% [1]. - Many automotive executives are pessimistic about the market outlook, with some predicting double-digit negative growth [1]. - November sales data indicates a decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles, with 2.225 million units sold, representing an 8.1% year-on-year decrease [1]. Group 2: Impact of Subsidy Changes - The sudden cessation of subsidies in September and October 2025 has significantly impacted consumer purchasing behavior, leading to a hold on car purchases [4][5]. - Approximately 4 trillion yuan in subsidies were released in 2025, with over 10 million vehicles benefiting from trade-in subsidies [5]. - The end of the tax exemption for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to further dampen consumer interest, as the tax will be halved starting next year [6]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The cessation of subsidies has led to a "wait-and-see" attitude among consumers, with many opting to delay purchases [6][9]. - The automotive industry has been engaged in a price war for two years, which has conditioned consumers to wait for better deals before making purchases [9]. - Some consumers believe that the removal of subsidies may lead to lower car prices, as manufacturers may need to reduce prices to stimulate demand [10]. Group 4: Future Industry Trends - The automotive industry is expected to enter a more competitive phase, with a focus on product differentiation and maintaining profitability rather than just volume sales [11][12]. - There is a potential shift in market dynamics, with a decline in demand for low-cost vehicles and an emphasis on higher-priced, technologically advanced models [12]. - Future policies may focus on supporting specific segments of the market, such as NEVs and smart vehicles, rather than broad subsidies [13]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical examples, such as Sweden's transition away from electric vehicle incentives, suggest that the Chinese market may experience initial volatility but could stabilize over time [14]. - The future of the Chinese NEV market remains uncertain, with questions about whether the market penetration will continue to grow or decline [14].
明年买车，更便宜？
3 6 Ke·2025-12-10 07:53