王文：“十五五”时期全球产业链的变迁与发展机遇

Core Insights - The ongoing great power competition is profoundly reshaping the global landscape, necessitating companies to focus on risk defense and flexible responses in the short term, while emphasizing independent innovation and global integration in the medium to long term [2][3] Group 1: Global Landscape and Strategic Signals - The U.S.-China competition has entered a prolonged phase, accelerating the profound restructuring of global industrial and value chains [3] - The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has indicated that the development environment during the 14th Five-Year Plan will be complex and uncertain, but China's economic foundation remains strong with significant potential for long-term growth [3] - Three key signals from the Congress include: responding to external uncertainties with internal certainties, leveraging independent innovation to break through competitive barriers, and countering protectionism through openness [3][4] Group 2: Industrial Layout and Global Economic Impact - The 14th Five-Year Plan's industrial layout will significantly impact the global economic structure by promoting supply chain diversification, providing alternative sources of technology, products, and capital beyond traditional Western centers [4] - It will accelerate the democratization of technology, allowing more countries to access advanced technologies at lower costs, while intensifying global competition in cutting-edge fields [4] - The plan aims to establish new paradigms in green and digital sectors, with China's large green industry driving global low-carbon transitions and setting new benchmarks for supply chain efficiency through the integration of digital technology and the real economy [4] Group 3: Corporate Strategies in Response to Great Power Competition - Companies should adapt to the changing landscape by focusing on risk defense and flexible strategies, including establishing backup supply chains for critical sectors, tariff hedging through overseas production, and prioritizing compliance in cross-border mergers and investments [5][6] - In the medium to long term, companies should emphasize independent innovation in key areas such as AI, chips, and new energy, while deepening global operations and promoting Chinese technology standards internationally [6] - The rise of the "Global South" and the increasing influence of regional trade agreements indicate a shift towards a more fragmented but potentially fairer global trade environment [5][6] Group 4: Personal Development and Investment Strategies - Individuals are encouraged to integrate into global value networks, enhance their skills to improve competitiveness, and diversify investments across various asset classes to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [6]