我国再生铜成破局关键？全球铜荒蔓延，一吨铜卖11705美元！

Core Viewpoint - The surge in copper prices is driven by a significant supply-demand imbalance, with demand outpacing supply due to various industrial needs, particularly in the renewable energy and AI sectors [3][10][28]. Supply Side - Global copper ore quality is deteriorating, with the average copper extraction rate dropping from 1.2% in 2010 to an expected 0.8% by 2025, leading to higher extraction costs and slower mining progress [6]. - Major institutions predict that global copper supply will only grow by 1.5% annually from 2025 to 2030, which is insufficient to meet rising demand [6]. Demand Side - The demand for copper has doubled due to rapid advancements in the renewable energy and AI industries, with electric vehicles requiring 80 to 120 kilograms of copper, significantly more than traditional vehicles [8]. - The global demand for copper is projected to grow at approximately 3% this year, which is more than double the supply growth rate [10]. Price Trends - Copper prices reached a record high of $11,705 per ton on December 5, indicating a strong upward trend driven by the supply-demand imbalance [4][12]. - The long-term outlook for copper prices suggests a likely continued upward trend due to ongoing industrial needs and supply constraints [12][28]. Strategic Importance - Copper is a critical strategic material for various industries in China, including power, home appliances, and transportation, with a significant reliance on imports due to domestic resource scarcity [18][20]. - China's copper reserves are only 41 million tons, accounting for 4.1% of global reserves, leading to a high dependency on imports from politically sensitive regions [20][22]. Geopolitical Risks - China's reliance on foreign copper resources poses a risk of supply disruptions, especially given that over 80% of its copper ore imports come from geopolitically sensitive areas [22]. - The U.S. has classified copper as a national security resource, initiating investigations to limit China's access to high-grade copper ore and critical smelting equipment [22][24]. Mitigation Strategies - To address the copper supply challenges, China is focusing on diversifying overseas mining operations and enhancing copper recycling efforts [24][26]. - By 2030, China's recycled copper production is expected to exceed 9.5 million tons, which could significantly bolster national copper resource security [26].