Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-10 08:20Core Viewpoint - The A-share real estate sector experienced a significant surge, with major stocks like Vanke A and China Fortune Land Development hitting the daily limit, driven by market expectations of fiscal interest subsidies to stabilize the housing market [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 10, the A-share real estate sector saw a sharp rise, with stocks such as China Fortune Land Development, Vanke A, and Caixin Development reaching their daily limit [1]. - In the Hong Kong market, Vanke Enterprises rose over 17%, while other companies like Ronshine China and China Jinmao increased by more than 9% [1]. - Specific stock performance data includes Vanke Enterprises at 3.890 with a 16.47% increase, and Ronshine China at 0.160 with a 12.68% rise [2]. Group 2: Policy Expectations - The market sentiment is fueled by expectations of fiscal interest subsidies aimed at stabilizing housing prices, with cities like Nanjing and Wuhan already implementing such policies [3][15]. - Analysts suggest that the core goal of potential housing loan interest subsidies is to align housing returns with financing costs, thereby providing support for housing prices [6][7]. - The anticipated national housing loan interest subsidy policy remains speculative, with no concrete measures announced yet [16]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The proposed "hidden interest rate cut" through housing loan interest subsidies aims to alleviate the pressure on banks while reducing costs for homebuyers [4][9]. - The current average housing loan interest rate is 3.06%, while rental yields in major cities are significantly lower, creating a disparity that affects housing market stability [7][9]. - The potential implementation of these subsidies could involve a phased approach, initially targeting new first-home loans in major cities, with estimated fiscal pressures ranging from 300 to 450 billion yuan annually [13][15]. Group 4: Local Government Initiatives - Local governments have begun to experiment with housing loan interest subsidies, with varying rates and terms, such as Nanjing offering up to 4,000 yuan in subsidies [15]. - Initial results from these local policies indicate a short-term boost in new home sales, although the sustainability of these effects remains uncertain [15].