董明珠们的最大靠山，倒在了2025

Core Viewpoint - The traditional distribution model in various industries, particularly in alcohol, beverages, and confectionery, is facing unprecedented challenges, leading to significant financial losses for distributors and a potential industry shakeout by 2025 [1][11][25] Group 1: Industry Challenges - By 2025, the once-stable consumption patterns of traditional products like liquor and tobacco are deteriorating, with younger consumers moving away from these products [1] - Distributors, once seen as profitable entities, are now facing severe financial difficulties, with some predicting losses in the millions due to a complete lack of profitability across the board [3][11] - The inventory levels for listed liquor companies are alarmingly high, with 20 companies accumulating nearly 4 million tons of stock, leading to distributors becoming mere storage facilities for excess inventory [6][8] Group 2: Financial Strain on Distributors - Distributors are experiencing a dual pressure of slow sales returns while needing to prepay for goods, creating a "double squeeze" on their finances [8] - The beverage market is also struggling, with some distributors reporting a sales decline of up to 80% compared to the previous year, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [8][9] - Confectionery distributors are facing even harsher realities, with some unable to sustain operations due to prolonged payment delays from manufacturers, leading to bankruptcies [9][11] Group 3: Evolution of Distribution Models - The traditional distribution model is collapsing as brands begin to bypass distributors by establishing direct supply chains, diminishing the role of distributors in the market [14][17] - Major retailers are expanding their operations to include logistics and consumer engagement, further reducing the relevance of traditional distributors [14] - The historical reliance on brand partnerships and extensive product offerings is becoming a liability, as market conditions shift towards a more fragmented and competitive landscape [15][19] Group 4: Future Outlook and Transformation - The current market conditions are prompting a necessary transformation for distributors, who must shift from a passive role to one that actively creates user value [21][23] - Distributors are encouraged to focus on localized business strategies and adapt to changing consumer preferences, moving away from traditional methods of operation [21][23] - The industry is expected to undergo a significant shakeout, with estimates suggesting that 20%-30% of distributors may be eliminated in the coming years if they do not adapt [23][25]