Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The forecast for Tongcheng Travel's Q4 2025 revenue is between 4.57 billion to 4.84 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% to 14.3% [1][7] - The projected net profit for the same period is estimated to be between 415 million to 795 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 18.3% to 126.7% [1][7] - Adjusted net profit is expected to range from 724 million to 758 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 9.6% to 14.8% year-on-year [1][7] Group 2: Recent Seller Insights - According to Galaxy Securities, Tongcheng Travel's Q3 2025 report shows a year-on-year revenue growth of 10.4% and a net profit increase of 17% [9][10] - The core OTA platform revenue grew by 15%, with significant contributions from transportation ticketing and accommodation booking services [9][10] - The hotel management business is strong, operating nearly 3,000 hotels, with an additional 1,500 in preparation [10] Group 3: Business Performance - Accommodation booking revenue reached 1.58 billion yuan, growing by 14.7% year-on-year, outpacing industry growth [9] - Transportation ticketing services generated 2.21 billion yuan, marking a 9.0% increase year-on-year, with rapid growth in international ticketing and ancillary products [9] - Other business segments achieved 820 million yuan in revenue, a 34.9% increase, primarily driven by the rapid expansion of hotel management [9] Group 4: User Engagement and Future Outlook - The company has shifted its user operation focus towards enhancing ARPU (Average Revenue Per User), with daily active users reaching a historical high [9] - Despite challenges in the vacation segment due to safety issues in Southeast Asia, the paid user base continues to grow, particularly in non-first-tier cities [10] - The company anticipates continued revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [10]
同程旅行：预测第四季度营业收入45.70~48.44亿元，同比增长7.9%~14.3%