每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-12-09）

Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week while keeping its language open for future adjustments based on employment data [1] - Barclays expects a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.5% to 3.75% this week, with further cuts predicted in March and June of next year [1] - Deutsche Bank predicts a 25 basis point cut this week, with Powell likely emphasizing a high threshold for future cuts in early 2026 [7] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Morgan Stanley suggests that the stock market's upward momentum may stall post-Fed rate cut as investors lock in profits [3] - Nomura has reversed its previous stance, now predicting a 25 basis point cut in December, citing sufficient dovish signals for a "risk management" rate cut [4] - Fitch Ratings forecasts the Fed will maintain rates in December but will cut three times by mid-2026 as economic conditions stabilize [5] Group 3: Gold Price Forecasts - State Street Global Advisors predicts that gold prices may stabilize between $4,000 and $4,500 per ounce in 2026 after a significant rise in 2025 [2] - The ongoing structural trends supporting gold prices are expected to remain intact, making gold an attractive hedge against rising debt and inflation [2] Group 4: Stock Market Predictions - Oppenheimer forecasts an 18% increase in the S&P 500 index, reaching 8,100 points by 2026, driven by strong earnings growth [7] - Russell Investments anticipates a "hawkish" 25 basis point cut from the Fed, with a terminal rate projected between 3.25% and 3.5% [9] Group 5: European Central Bank Insights - The European Central Bank's Schnabel hinted at a potential rate hike rather than a cut, which has strengthened the euro [8]