广发证券：如何看待近期港股市场走势偏弱？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Hong Kong stock market is more sensitive to external risks, particularly due to the unclear future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve and the upcoming peak of lock-up stock releases in December, which may lead to liquidity shocks [1][2] - The recent significant decline in the Hong Kong stock market is attributed to external factors, including Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell's statements on interest rate cuts, leading to a net outflow of foreign capital from emerging markets [1][2] - The Hong Kong market is facing a peak in lock-up stock releases, with a total of HKD 126 billion in lock-up stocks set to be released in December, which is expected to impact market sentiment negatively [2] Group 2 - Potential rebound time points are identified, with December's mid to late period being crucial due to the upcoming economic work conference and the Bank of Japan's interest rate statements, which could provide positive signals for the market [3] - The end of the lock-up stock peak in early January, combined with the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes, could also create favorable conditions for liquidity if the interest rate path leans dovish [4] - Technical indicators suggest that the Hong Kong stock market has sufficient downward momentum, with the Hang Seng Index currently positioned between the 120-day and 250-day moving averages, indicating a potential for rebound [4]