穆迪首席经济学家警告：美国“就业衰退”的前奏已至

Group 1 - The chief economist of Moody's, Mark Zandi, expresses concern that the U.S. labor market no longer has a buffer, with many Americans living on the financial edge, which could trigger a recession if spending is cut [2] - Job openings have only increased by a few hundred thousand since summer, remaining far below the pandemic peak, while layoffs have slightly increased and the quit rate has decreased, indicating workers are hesitant to leave their current jobs [2][3] - The ADP report indicates that private employers cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline in over two years, primarily affecting small businesses, which eliminated 120,000 positions [3] Group 2 - Zandi notes that the increase in layoff announcements, totaling 1.1 million this year, is significant and reflects decisions made months before actual layoffs occur, suggesting that layoffs are imminent [4] - The unemployment rate for young workers and Black workers has risen, indicating early signs of labor market deterioration, particularly in industries heavily reliant on foreign-born labor [4] - High-income households continue to spend robustly despite rising borrowing costs, acting as a buffer against a slowdown, while middle- and low-income families face increasing pressure [5] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is debating interest rate cuts, reflecting growing concerns that without support, the labor market could deteriorate more rapidly by early 2026 [6] - There is internal tension within the Federal Reserve, with some officials recognizing rising unemployment risks and advocating for further easing, while others believe the economy still has sufficient strength [6][7] - Zandi warns that the visible weaknesses in small business jobs, layoff announcements, and early demographic pressures could culminate in an impending wave of layoffs [7]