美媒：押上整个美国，让中国倒退25年，特朗普的豪赌真的值得吗？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S.-China trade war has become normalized, with the U.S. seemingly achieving a decoupling from China, but the economic benefits of this strategy are questionable [1] Group 1: Trade Policies and Tariffs - In 2017, China held a 21% share of U.S. imports, but this changed dramatically under the Trump administration, which imposed tariffs on over 2,800 Chinese goods, with rates soaring to 145% by April 2025 [3][5] - The U.S. government has also placed hundreds of Chinese companies on an entity list, restricting their access to U.S. technology and components, while encouraging multinational companies to relocate production out of China [5][7] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Impact - Despite initial optimism, signs of decline in U.S. manufacturing began to emerge by the end of 2024, with over 50,000 blue-collar jobs lost in 2025 alone, and manufacturing output only increasing by 1.6%, failing to recover to 2023 levels [7][9] - The anticipated manufacturing boom from the Biden administration's policies, such as the CHIPS Act, has not materialized, with construction spending by manufacturers declining for seven consecutive months in 2025 [9][11] Group 3: Labor and Cost Challenges - Labor shortages and high costs are significant barriers to the recovery of U.S. manufacturing, exacerbated by strict immigration policies that have limited the labor supply [11] - Tariff-induced increases in raw material costs have diminished the price competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, leading to a challenging environment for domestic producers [11] Group 4: Global Supply Chain Reconfiguration - The decline in Chinese goods' market share in the U.S. has not led to a resurgence of American manufacturing but rather a reconfiguration of global supply chains, with Mexico and Canada becoming the primary beneficiaries [13][15] - Many Chinese companies have established production bases in Mexico and Vietnam to circumvent U.S. tariffs, maintaining ties to Chinese supply chains for critical components [15] Group 5: Economic Consequences - The "decoupling" strategy has resulted in significant economic costs for the U.S., with consumer price indices rising to 4.2% in July 2025, the highest since 2008, largely due to tariffs [17] - The U.S. trade deficit surged past $900 billion by August 2025, indicating that the strategy failed to replace Chinese manufacturing with domestic production [17][19] Group 6: Broader Economic Implications - The economic strain has affected various sectors, including agriculture and defense, with rising bankruptcy rates among farmers and delays in military production due to supply chain disruptions [19][21] - Financial markets have reacted negatively, with the yield curve inverting for the first time since 2008, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook [21][23]