【环球财经】美联储12月议息会议分裂或加剧 市场大幅波动或成常态

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%-3.75%, amid increasing internal divisions and potential signals to pause future rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Market has nearly fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut for December, with a focus on the Fed's internal disagreements and future monetary policy expectations [1][2]. - The probability of a December rate cut fluctuated significantly, dropping below 30% after hawkish comments from Fed officials but rebounding due to weak employment data and dovish remarks [2][3]. - Analysts expect the Fed to signal a pause in rate cuts, emphasizing that rates are close to neutral levels [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Fed Dynamics - Among the 12 voting members of the FOMC, 5 have expressed opposition or skepticism towards further rate cuts, while 4 members support the cut [3][4]. - The decision hinges on the stance of three key leaders who have not yet made their positions clear, which could sway the vote towards a 7:5 majority in favor of the cut [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a reported decrease of 32,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate rising from 4.1% to 4.4% over three months [2][3]. - Inflation in the service sector is stabilizing, but wage growth continues to outpace productivity growth, potentially undermining economic momentum [3][6]. Group 4: Future Projections - The Fed is expected to adjust its economic forecasts, likely raising growth predictions while lowering inflation expectations, maintaining guidance for rate cuts in 2026-2027 [7][8]. - Economists predict that the Fed may cut rates again in June and July 2026, with a final rate target of 3.00%-3.25% [7][8]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The anticipation of rate cuts is expected to lead to increased market volatility, with the potential for the dollar index to rise if the Fed's stance is more hawkish than expected [9][10]. - The Fed's internal divisions may lead to unpredictable market reactions, as the focus shifts to the predictability of policy decisions rather than the policies themselves [11].