白银逆袭！年内涨幅超100%，比黄金还猛

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has surged over 100% this year, outpacing gold, driven by supply-demand imbalances, expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy, and unprecedented investment demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The primary driver of silver price increases is a severe supply-demand imbalance. The photovoltaic industry is the largest consumer of silver, with global silver usage in this sector expected to reach 7,560 tons by 2025, doubling from 2022 and accounting for 55% of total global silver demand [3]. - The silver consumption in the electric vehicle sector is projected to reach 2,566 tons, growing at over 12% annually. Additionally, silver usage in AI computing servers has increased by 30% compared to traditional equipment, and the construction of 5G base stations has also boosted silver demand [3]. - On the supply side, global silver production has fallen to 820 million ounces, a 12% decline from the peak in 2020. Notably, silver production in Mexico has decreased, and several silver mines in Peru have ceased operations, with recycled silver supply only growing by 1.2%, which is insufficient to meet industrial demand [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Expectations of a shift in U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy are also significant contributors to the rise in silver prices. The market anticipates an over 80% probability of interest rate cuts in December, which would lower the holding costs for precious metals like silver, thereby supporting price increases [3]. Group 3: Investment Demand Surge - Investment demand for silver is projected to reach a historical high of 1.334 billion ounces by 2025, representing 37% of total global silver demand. Over the past six months, global silver ETF holdings have increased by over 500 tons, driven by both retail investors and institutional funds, particularly in the North American market [4]. Group 4: Divergent Institutional Views - Institutional perspectives on silver's price trajectory are divided. UBS has raised its 2026 silver price target to between $58 and $60 per ounce, with a possibility of reaching $65 per ounce. Citigroup and Standard Chartered predict silver prices will stabilize above $55 per ounce in late 2025 to early 2026 [6]. - Conversely, some institutions express caution. For instance, Rida Futures warns that the cumulative price increase of over 100% this year may lead to heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic data, potentially amplifying the risk of price corrections. TD Securities has cautioned that global silver supply will significantly increase in 2026, with ample inventory in London, suggesting that silver prices may retreat to the mid-$40 range early next year [6].