国际货币基金组织对中国经济的预判比亚行更具说服力

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its economic growth forecast for China in 2025 to 5%, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) predicts a lower growth rate of 4.8%, reflecting differing perspectives on China's economic resilience and transformation vitality [3][4][5] Economic Growth Predictions - IMF's adjustment is based on comprehensive analysis of China's economic data, with a reported growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters of 2023, despite a slight slowdown to 4.8% in the third quarter [3] - ADB's forecast highlights concerns over real estate downturn and domestic demand weakness, indicating a more cautious outlook compared to IMF [4][5] Export Performance - China's export growth reached nearly 7% in the third quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations, showcasing the resilience of the economy [3] - The diversification of export destinations and the increase in high-quality product exports have strengthened trade competitiveness, which IMF considers a core factor in its assessment [3][4] Domestic Demand and Policy Impact - Domestic demand has been a major contributor to growth, driven by large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods replacement policies, which have effectively boosted consumption [4] - The emergence of new economic drivers, such as low-altitude economy and rapid development in equipment manufacturing, has allowed China to maintain growth elasticity during traditional industry adjustments [4] Perspectives on Economic Resilience - The differences in predictions between IMF and ADB stem from their observational perspectives, with IMF focusing on China's self-repair capabilities and policy effectiveness, while ADB is perceived to be overly fixated on short-term risks [5] - The 0.2 percentage point difference in growth forecasts serves as a reminder that assessments of China's economy should consider a comprehensive view, acknowledging both challenges and the supportive factors for growth [5]