基金经理投资笔记 | 锚定盈利、聚焦中游、工具适配

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles and adapting investment strategies accordingly, focusing on the interplay between risk and return, and the need for a dynamic asset allocation approach to navigate the evolving market landscape [1][2][3]. Group 1: Strategy Implementation - Investment strategies should be clearly planned at the end of each year, balancing proactive measures with responsive tactics to adapt to market changes [1]. - The essence of asset management strategies lies in seeking a dynamic balance among profitability, liquidity, and safety, transforming vague wealth goals into actionable frameworks [3]. Group 2: 2025 Strategy Review - The major shift in asset allocation for 2025 was driven by a change in risk premiums, transitioning from "conflict premium" to "repair premium" due to the stabilization of US-China trade tensions [4]. - AI+ technology is identified as a core driver of structural opportunities across various sectors, enhancing production efficiency and creating a viable industrial dividend chain [5]. - A supportive funding environment characterized by abundant liquidity has facilitated the concentration of capital in high-certainty and high-growth areas, enhancing the returns on quality assets [6]. Group 3: 2026 Asset Allocation Strategy - The risk premium for Chinese assets is expected to continue its downward trend, supported by the stabilization of external conflicts and the resonance of institutional reforms [10]. - The liquidity environment is anticipated to shift from abundance to structural adaptation, with a focus on high-certainty sectors, necessitating a refined asset selection approach [11]. - The correlation between inflation and profitability is expected to highlight the value of yield strategies, making fixed-income assets a key choice for stable returns [12]. - The focus of fiscal policy is projected to shift towards stability and social welfare, emphasizing structural opportunities over total economic growth [13]. - The narrative-driven trading approach is expected to weaken, with a shift towards profitability verification as the primary driver for industry selection [14]. Group 4: Key Conclusions for 2026 - The effective asset allocation strategy for 2026 is rooted in the interplay of declining risk premiums, rising profitability, and structural differentiation [16]. - The focus will be on midstream industries, which are expected to benefit from improved profitability and resilience against demand fluctuations [17]. - The use of tools like ETFs will remain crucial for efficiently capturing structural opportunities in specific sectors [17].