高盛2026美股板块展望：工业科技股仍是“香饽饽” 汽车股需“精挑细选”

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs released a report on the outlook for the U.S. automotive and industrial technology sectors for 2026, indicating that both sectors outperformed the S&P 500 index in 2025, with industrial tech stocks expected to continue leading the market due to cyclical recovery and long-term growth opportunities in AI, energy infrastructure, and automation [1][3] - In 2025, the median stock price increase for automotive OEMs and suppliers was 23%, while industrial tech stocks saw a median increase of 63%, compared to a 16% rise in the S&P 500 index, reflecting strong end-demand trends and valuation multiple expansion [2] - For 2026, Goldman Sachs anticipates further interest rate cuts, which will support valuations, with a projected real GDP growth of 2-2.5% and a cyclical recovery in industrial tech stocks driven by the end of the inventory cycle and ongoing growth opportunities in data centers, AI, and automation [3] Group 2 - The automotive sector is advised to adopt a selective strategy due to historical production levels and expected modest growth in sales, with global automotive production and sales projected to maintain low single-digit growth in 2025 and 2026 [4] - Key automotive stocks recommended include General Motors (GM.US), BorgWarner (BWA.US), and Visteon (VC.US), as the sector benefits from declining interest rates, which will primarily enhance product pricing structures rather than sales growth [4] - Goldman Sachs highlighted the strong performance of the data center and AI infrastructure markets in 2025, with a focus on companies like Flex (FLEX.US), Jabil (JBL.US), and Vertiv Holdings (VRT.US) that are expected to see profit margin improvements due to new technologies and scale effects [5] Group 3 - In the autonomous driving and physical AI sectors, the commercialization of autonomous driving technology is accelerating, with the number of operational cities for leading companies increasing from 3 to 8 in 2025, and projected to reach around 20 by the end of 2026 [5] - For Tesla (TSLA.US), the company has a significant cost advantage in the autonomous taxi market, with software adaptability and mileage being key to profitability, while its focus on humanoid robots is expected to take several years for large-scale deployment [6] - Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot program is set to launch its third-generation production in 2026, with plans for fourth and fifth-generation products to be introduced gradually from 2027 to 2028, aiming for an annual production capacity of 1 billion units [6]