美联储降息倒计时：都是谁在等风来？

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with significant attention on Chairman Powell's handling of internal dissent among committee members [1][2] - There is a rare internal division within the Federal Reserve, with at least five out of twelve voting members favoring a pause in rate cuts, which could lead to a historic number of dissenting votes [2] - Powell faces political pressure as his term ends in mid-2026, complicating his policy decisions and increasing scrutiny from the market [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Market Dynamics - The gold market is in a "rate cut countdown" mode, with traders pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, supporting the inflow of safe-haven assets [3] - The gold price fluctuated between $4,163.80 and $4,264.70, closing at $4,198.68, indicating a slight decline of 0.41% [3] - The gold-silver ratio remains high at around 86, suggesting silver is undervalued compared to gold, creating opportunities for investors to shift towards silver for potential gains [3] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a tug-of-war between global liquidity expectations and actual economic fundamentals, leading to a market pullback since Q4 2025 [5][6] - Despite the market's volatility, the economic fundamentals in Hong Kong, supported by resilient domestic macro data and strong export performance, provide a buffer for the stock market [6] - The valuation advantage of Hong Kong stocks is notable, with the Hang Seng Stock Connect Index's TTM P/E ratio at 11.68, significantly lower than other indices, indicating potential for future foreign capital inflow [7]