美联储降息预期升温，金融市场博弈

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is approaching a critical policy window as the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the third consecutive cut due to a weak U.S. labor market [1][3]. Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve has already implemented two rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%—4.00% [1][3]. - Market expectations for a third rate cut are high, with a nearly 90% probability predicted by the CME FedWatch Tool [3][4]. - The concept of "hawkish rate cuts" suggests that while the Fed will lower rates, it will signal a higher threshold for future cuts to prevent excessive market optimism [4]. Economic Indicators - Recent data shows a surprising decrease of 32,000 in U.S. private sector employment for November, the largest drop since March 2023, indicating structural weakness in the labor market [4]. - Inflation pressures are easing, with the core PCE price index rising by 2.8% year-on-year in September, suggesting manageable production-side inflation [4]. Implications for China - The Fed's rate cuts are expected to alleviate monetary policy pressures on major global economies, providing China with more room for monetary policy adjustments [6][7]. - The narrowing of the China-U.S. interest rate differential could support a stronger RMB, allowing for potential policy rate reductions in China to lower financing costs for the real economy [7][8]. Market Reactions - The anticipated Fed rate cuts are likely to influence global equity, currency, and bond markets, with the dollar index expected to weaken, benefiting non-U.S. currencies [9][11]. - The Chinese stock market has shown mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3900.50 points, reflecting a slight decline [10]. - Bond markets are experiencing varied impacts, with domestic bond yields influenced by both Fed policies and internal supply pressures [11].