通胀与就业的两难选择：今夜，美联储会降息多少？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut in December, but the focus of the upcoming meeting will be on future policy guidance and how Chairman Powell balances conflicting signals between hawkish and dovish stances [1][2]. Group 1: Market Expectations - The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, driven by unexpected negative ADP employment data and weaker-than-expected PCE price index [2]. - The internal division within the Federal Reserve is significant, with some officials skeptical about continuing rate cuts while inflation remains above the 2% target, potentially leading to an increase in dissenting votes during the meeting [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The quarterly economic forecasts and the dot plot will be crucial, as they will provide insights into the Fed's projections for economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates through 2026 [2]. - The market currently prices in approximately 52 basis points of rate cuts (around two cuts) by 2026, indicating a cautious outlook on future monetary policy [2][8]. Group 3: Balance Sheet Management - Future asset and liability management is becoming equally important as the rate decision, with potential plans for the Fed to start purchasing short-term Treasury bills in January 2026 to manage liquidity [3]. Group 4: Policy Dilemmas - The Fed faces a classic policy dilemma with persistent inflation pressures and a cooling job market, leading to increased internal disagreements [4][5]. - Powell's statements during the meeting are expected to convey how the Fed will navigate these conflicting goals, with a possibility of a hawkish tone despite the rate cut [4][6]. Group 5: Future Rate Cuts - Analysts suggest that the pace of rate cuts may slow in the first half of next year, with significant monetary easing potentially not occurring until after June 2026 [7][8]. - The upcoming leadership change at the Fed adds another layer of uncertainty, with speculation about whether the new chair will adopt a more dovish stance [9].