美联储降息倒计时

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the "rate cut trade," with nearly a 90% probability of a rate cut in December, up from about 30% three weeks ago [2] - Goldman Sachs highlights that the labor market indicators are weakening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% for three consecutive months, and the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20-24 reaching 8.5%, up 3.5 percentage points from 2022 [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has decreased to $6.5 trillion, and the banking system's reserves have dropped to $2.9 trillion, raising expectations for a potential resumption of balance sheet expansion to enhance market liquidity [4][5] Group 2 - Despite a surprising sell-off in November, traders are preparing for a "Santa Rally" in December, historically a strong month for the stock market [6] - The Nasdaq 100 index has a higher average return in December compared to its annual average, with a 1.7% average increase, while the Russell 2000 index shows even stronger performance with a 2.3% average return [7] - Wall Street remains optimistic about the market outlook for 2026, with Morgan Stanley projecting the S&P 500 to reach 7800 points, driven by strong earnings growth and operational leverage [8][9]