财经观察丨涨幅远超黄金！白银首次涨破60美元创历史新高，后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - Silver futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange surpassed $60 per ounce for the first time on the 9th, with a year-to-date increase of 102%, significantly outpacing gold's nearly 60% rise [1][3] Group 1: Price Movements - On the 9th, spot silver rose over 3%, reaching a peak of $60.895 per ounce, marking a historical high [3] - As of the morning of the 10th, spot silver was trading at $61.302 per ounce, continuing to set new historical highs [3] - COMEX silver futures also hit a record high of $61.295 per ounce, marking the first time it crossed the $61 threshold [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including a weaker dollar, changes in U.S. tariff policies, and a shortage in silver supply [1] - The World Silver Association forecasts a continued annual deficit in the silver market through 2025 due to limited production and rising industrial and investment demand [7] - Structural supply constraints are highlighted, with approximately 70-80% of silver production being a byproduct of mining for other metals, limiting the ability to increase supply rapidly [7] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Expectations of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have increased, which may further depress the dollar and support higher silver prices [1][11] - Analysts note a "dual-driven" pattern in the recent price increase, linked to the instability of the global credit monetary system and the dynamic changes in the gold-silver price ratio [9][10] - The demand for precious metals has surged due to rising debt levels in major Western economies and the associated risks of currency devaluation [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - UBS has raised its silver price target for 2026 to between $58 and $60 per ounce, with a possibility of reaching $65 [6] - Market analysts suggest that while silver may experience high volatility, the underlying long-term trend remains upward due to structural supply-demand imbalances [12]