VANKE(SZ:000002) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-12-10 12:35Market Overview - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.29% and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.02%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.78 trillion yuan, a decrease of 125.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][10]. Investment Outlook - According to JPMorgan's chief China equity strategist, the MSCI China Index is expected to rebound further, with a projected increase of approximately 18% by the end of 2026. The CSI 300 Index is anticipated to rise by about 12%, supported by capital flows and a recovery in the real estate market [2][11]. - Historical data indicates that from 2010 onwards, there is typically a cross-year market rally from late December to early spring, lasting 1-2 months. If the index is at a low level, the rally tends to start earlier and with greater magnitude [2][11]. Sector Performance - The real estate sector saw a notable increase in activity, particularly in the afternoon trading session, with expectations of fiscal support stabilizing the market. The building materials sector also benefited from this trend [8][17]. - The precious metals sector was active, with international silver prices surpassing $60, marking a year-to-date increase of 109.97% as of December 9. The price of silver was influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts, supply constraints, and its inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list [5][14]. Monetary Policy Impact - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting. This expectation is supported by mixed employment data, which shows a rise in job openings but a decrease in hiring and increased layoffs [6][15]. - The low interest rate environment continues to drive retail investment into the stock market, with expectations of increased capital inflows from both domestic and foreign investors [4][13].