宁愿押上整个美国，让中国倒退25年，特朗普这场豪赌真的值得吗？

Group 1 - The Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy, which imposes tariffs up to 145% on Chinese goods, is seen as a gamble that disrupts global trade dynamics [1][4][9] - The policy is rooted in Trump's belief that China is the main cause of the U.S. trade deficit, aiming to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. by blocking Chinese imports [7][11] - The tariffs are expected to generate $100 billion annually for the U.S. treasury, but the actual burden falls on American consumers and businesses [11][20] Group 2 - The tariffs have led to increased costs for U.S. manufacturers reliant on Chinese intermediate goods, forcing retailers to pass on these costs to consumers [13][14] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that the costs of tariffs are primarily borne by the U.S., with households losing approximately $1,300 in 2020 and over $1,200 annually after the new tariffs in 2025 [18][20] - The tariffs are projected to decrease U.S. GDP by 5.1% and reduce imports by 21%, while employment in both skilled and unskilled labor sectors is expected to decline by over 6% [22] Group 3 - Despite the tariffs, U.S. companies have not relocated production back to the U.S.; instead, they are sourcing from other low-cost countries, leading to an increase in the trade deficit from $420 billion in 2017 to $823 billion in 2023 [24][26] - The trade deficit reflects deeper structural issues in the U.S. economy, such as insufficient domestic savings, rather than just tariff impacts [26][28] - The agricultural and manufacturing sectors in the U.S. are facing significant challenges, with products like soybeans and cotton losing access to the Chinese market due to retaliatory measures [26][28] Group 4 - In response to U.S. tariffs, China has diversified its markets and accelerated industrial upgrades, achieving a total trade value of 37.31 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [33][35] - Although exports to the U.S. decreased by 17%, exports to ASEAN and EU countries have significantly increased, reducing the U.S. share in China's foreign trade to 9% [35] - China's automotive exports are projected to exceed 6 million units in 2025, marking a shift away from reliance on labor-intensive products [36] Group 5 - China's advancements in semiconductor technology, particularly in mature process chips, demonstrate resilience against U.S. restrictions, with a significant portion of global chip consumption being mature process products [36][38] - The Chinese economy's actual GDP decline due to tariffs is only 1.62%, significantly lower than the U.S. impact, indicating a more controlled economic response [39] - The intended goal of making China regress economically has instead catalyzed its growth and transformation, revealing the limitations of using tariffs as a means of economic pressure [41]