KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-12-10 13:08Core Viewpoint - The wholesale price of Feitian Moutai has dropped to its guidance price, reflecting a significant decline of 40% compared to two years ago, while the stock price of Kweichow Moutai is testing the support level of 1400 yuan, indicating a broader concern about the traditional consumer sector and the challenges facing the liquor industry [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The market wholesale price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai has reached a new low of 1500 yuan per bottle, down approximately 20% year-on-year and 40% compared to two years ago [1]. - The price of Feitian Moutai has continuously broken through several psychological barriers this year, with prices falling below 2000 yuan in June and 1700 yuan by the end of October, marking the first time since January 2018 that the price has fallen to the guidance price of 1499 yuan [2]. - Many distributors believe that maintaining the price around 1500 yuan by the end of the year would be a positive outcome, but short-term rebounds are unlikely due to decreased consumer demand [2]. Group 2: Company Performance and Strategy - Kweichow Moutai's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1309.04 billion yuan, a slight increase of 6.33%, while net profit grew by 6.25% to 646.27 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [4]. - The company has acknowledged the ongoing challenges in the liquor industry, including supply bottlenecks and changing consumer demographics, and is actively pursuing "three transformations" and "three terminal changes" to adapt to these challenges [3]. - The company reported a decline in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 381.96 billion yuan, down 14.01% year-on-year, suggesting pressure on sales collections [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The high-end liquor industry is undergoing a fundamental restructuring, with a shift from "scarcity premium" to "value pricing," as investment interest wanes and younger consumers show less inclination to purchase premium liquor [5]. - The traditional liquor sector is experiencing a deep adjustment period, with changing consumer habits and preferences leading to overall growth slowdown in the industry [6]. - The future demand dynamics and their impact on the long-term pricing of Feitian Moutai remain uncertain, as the market is currently in a phase of hesitation regarding the company's mid-to-long-term valuation [6].