瑞银胡一帆：预计2025年中国经济增速在4.9%至5%区间

Economic Outlook - UBS expects China's economic growth in 2025 to be between 4.9% and 5%, with better-than-expected performance in the first three quarters and a slowdown in the fourth quarter [1] - The growth target for 2026 is likely to be set at 4.5% to 5%, supported by existing policy measures [1] Consumption and Investment - Consumption growth is projected to be in the range of 3% to 4% in 2026, while investment is expected to recover with an increase in growth rate [1] - Exports are anticipated to show strong resilience, with an average growth rate of 5% in 2025 and a forecasted growth of 2% to 3% in 2026 [1] Capital Markets - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable outlook in the short and medium term, benefiting from profit growth and liquidity support [1] - Technology stocks are anticipated to perform well, with a projected 30% increase in 2025 following a 20% rise in 2024, and current valuations are 30% lower than US stocks [1] Monetary Policy - A reduction in reserve requirement ratios by 50 to 100 basis points and interest rate cuts of 20 to 30 basis points are expected in 2025 [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is projected to stabilize around 7 by the end of 2025, with a potential decline to approximately 6.9 in the second half of 2026 [2] Artificial Intelligence Sector - Global capital expenditure in the AI sector is expected to reach $350 billion in 2025, increasing to $500 billion in the following year, driven by real market demand [2] - By 2030, revenue in AI-enabled sectors is projected to reach $3.1 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate of 30% [2] Investment Recommendations - UBS recommends focusing on AI, longevity economy, and structural trends in electricity and resources within diversified stock portfolios [3] - AI is expected to significantly enhance global revenue and productivity, with potential automation of one-third of tasks in the labor market [3] - The integration of AI in healthcare presents substantial market growth opportunities across various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and diagnostics [3]