中央重磅会议！透露三大信号：2026年“房价拐点”来了

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference outlines a policy blueprint for 2026, indicating that the real estate market is transitioning from a period of significant fluctuations to a more stable phase, with 2026 expected to be a critical turning point for housing prices in China [1] Group 1: Monetary and Fiscal Policy Support - The conference emphasizes the continuation of "more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies" in 2026, which will provide essential financial support for the real estate market [2] - Large-scale issuance of special bonds and government bonds will drive housing demand, particularly in urban renewal and village renovation projects [2] - Current first-home loan interest rates have reached a nearly 20-year low, easing the financial burden on homebuyers and creating a more favorable financing environment for real estate companies [2] Group 2: Policy Adjustment Strategies - The focus on "increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment" indicates a shift in real estate regulation from short-term stimulus to a dual approach of stabilizing the market in the short term while promoting long-term transformation [4] - Local governments are gradually removing unreasonable restrictions in housing consumption, and cities like Guangzhou are initiating regular collection of commercial housing to improve supply-demand relationships [4] - The gradual policy adjustments aim to guide housing prices to stabilize and avoid significant market fluctuations, laying the groundwork for the upcoming turning point [4] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Urban Renewal - The conference prioritizes "building a strong domestic market and expanding consumption," linking the development of the real estate market closely with domestic demand strategies [6] - Urban renewal and village renovation are expected to release housing consumption potential, with 35% of buildings over 30 years old, representing a significant market opportunity [6] - The trend towards upgrading housing demand reflects a growing need for high-quality and functional housing, with targeted subsidies expected to further activate this potential [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The turning point in housing prices in 2026 is characterized as a transition from continuous decline to a "L-shaped bottoming and low-level consolidation," with regional differentiation becoming the norm [7] - Core areas in first-tier cities are projected to see moderate price increases of 2%-3%, while strong second-tier cities may experience structural recovery [7] - Third and fourth-tier cities are likely to maintain low-level fluctuations due to population outflows and high inventory levels, with some weaker cities continuing to face challenges [7]