FIBOCOM(SZ:300638) Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-12-10 13:56Core Viewpoint - Guanghe Tong's (300638) debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 22, 2025, marked a significant downturn with a 11.72% drop, breaking a streak of 16 consecutive new listings that opened higher. Despite this volatility, southbound capital has steadily increased its holdings, reaching 8.3% by December 8, indicating potential bullish sentiment for the stock moving forward [1][9]. Group 1: Initial Market Reaction - The initial drop on the first trading day was foreshadowed by a decline in the dark market prior to the listing, where the stock fell 0.93% despite a peak increase of 16.3% [2]. - The adoption of the "Mechanism B" issuance method has reshaped the IPO landscape in Hong Kong, resulting in a significant reduction in the proportion of new stocks that experience a drop on their debut [2][3]. - On the first trading day, Guanghe Tong's turnover rate was 41.29%, indicating that over 40% of investors chose to sell, resulting in a total sell-off amounting to 307 million HKD [3]. Group 2: Price Stabilization and Recovery Efforts - Following two days of rapid decline, Guanghe Tong entered a "stabilization" phase on the third trading day, aided by the main underwriter, Citic Securities, which began repurchasing shares [4]. - During the stabilization phase, the stock price peaked at 20.66 HKD, nearing the issue price of 21.5 HKD, reflecting a nearly 17% increase from the second trading day's closing price [6]. - After the stabilization period ended on November 16, the stock entered a "correction" phase, with a cumulative decline of nearly 30% over the next seven trading days [7]. Group 3: Southbound Capital Accumulation - Southbound capital has been a consistent factor in Guanghe Tong's stock performance, with holdings increasing significantly after the stock was included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect on November 17 [11]. - By December 4, southbound capital held 12.44 million shares, representing 9.2% of the total, and despite some profit-taking in subsequent days, holdings remained substantial at 8.38% by December 9 [13]. - The rapid accumulation of southbound capital during the stock's decline suggests a strategic positioning for future price recovery, as the stock remains undervalued compared to its A-share counterpart, with a discount of 41.9% [14].