340亿订单悬了？英媒爆猛料：美国和印尼的贸易协议濒临破裂！美贸易代表紧急赴印尼谈判？

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the United States and Indonesia, valued at $34 billion, is on the verge of collapse just five months after its establishment, prompting urgent negotiations by U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer to salvage the deal [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreement Details - The agreement, finalized in July, involved the U.S. reducing tariffs on Indonesian goods from 32% to 19%, while Indonesia committed to eliminating import barriers on U.S. industrial and agricultural products and purchasing $15 billion in energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft [3][6]. - The initial perception was that both countries benefited, with Indonesia gaining a slight competitive edge over Vietnam's 20% tariff [3]. Group 2: Reasons for Agreement Breakdown - The collapse of the agreement is attributed to two main conflicts: the "poison pill clause" regarding sovereignty and domestic industry pressures in Indonesia [5]. - The "poison pill clause" would allow the U.S. to terminate the agreement if Indonesia signed any deal deemed harmful to U.S. interests, which Indonesia rejected due to its significant trade relationship with China [6]. - Indonesia's business community opposed the U.S. demand to eliminate local content requirements, fearing it would undermine local manufacturing competitiveness [7]. - The reduction in U.S. tariffs has diminished Indonesia's urgency to comply with the agreement, leading to a desire to renegotiate binding terms into non-binding ones [8]. Group 3: Economic and Regional Implications - The potential failure of the agreement could result in the U.S. reinstating tariffs at 32%, significantly impacting Indonesia's exports of palm oil and textiles, although Indonesia's reliance on the U.S. market is relatively low compared to Malaysia [10]. - Indonesia's firm stance against U.S. pressure may inspire other Southeast Asian nations to resist similar trade demands, indicating a shift in regional trade dynamics [10]. - The evolving situation reflects a broader trend where Southeast Asian countries are less willing to be coerced into choosing sides between the U.S. and China, as evidenced by the substantial trade volume between China and ASEAN [10]. Group 4: Future Negotiation Prospects - The upcoming negotiations between U.S. Trade Representative Greer and Indonesian Economic Affairs Minister Erlangga could lead to two outcomes: a compromise with reduced scale or a complete breakdown resulting in renewed tariffs [12]. - Indonesia's economic strength as the largest economy in Southeast Asia provides it with leverage against U.S. pressure, complicating the negotiation landscape for the U.S. [12].