全球长债收益率飙升至16年新高，市场押注全球降息周期即将终结

Group 1 - Global long-term bond yields have returned to their highest levels since 2009, indicating a growing consensus that the easing monetary policy cycle by central banks is nearing its end [1] - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing unusual movements, with yields rising despite expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by concerns over persistent inflation and a significant budget deficit [5] - The shift in market sentiment has led to a "disappointment trade" across developed markets, as investors reassess inflation risks and the implications of rising public debt [4] Group 2 - The increase in global bond yields is attributed to both a shift in monetary policy expectations and the surge in government debt and fiscal expansion plans [6] - Major developed markets are seeing rising bond yields, with expectations that the European Central Bank has little room for further rate cuts and that the Bank of Japan is likely to raise rates soon [1][4] - Governments are planning significant fiscal expansions, such as Germany's record €52 billion defense order, which is influencing investor perceptions of long-term financing impacts [7]