仲量联行：香港住宅市场软着陆，2026年中小户型价格料升5%

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential market is experiencing a "soft landing," with expectations of a 5% increase in prices for small to medium-sized residential properties by 2026, while luxury property prices are expected to stabilize [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The overall atmosphere of the Hong Kong residential market has improved since 2025, with a significant increase in transaction volume, reaching 51,000 transactions by October 2025, a year-on-year increase of over 20% [1] - The capital price index for small to medium-sized residential properties in Hong Kong showed a 1.4% increase in the first eleven months of 2025 [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - The primary driver for market recovery is the release of accumulated purchasing power, particularly following the introduction of various tax relief policies in February 2024, which has led to a surge in demand from mainland buyers [2] - In some areas, the proportion of new property sales to mainland buyers has reached as high as 90% [1] Group 3: Inventory and Supply - High inventory levels have been a challenge for the Hong Kong real estate market, but it is expected that the inventory turnover period will decrease to approximately 51.3 months by the end of 2025, returning to levels seen between 2015 and 2021 [2] - By the end of 2026, private residential supply is anticipated to return to normal levels, further shortening the inventory turnover period to about 44.7 months [2] Group 4: Financial Environment - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have positively impacted the Hong Kong residential market by reducing mortgage costs, thereby alleviating financial pressure on buyers and enhancing their purchasing power [2] - Developers are experiencing improved financial conditions due to lower financing costs, allowing for more stable pricing strategies without the need for significant discounts [2] Group 5: Developer Sentiment - The willingness of developers to acquire land has increased, as evidenced by multiple government land sales in the second half of 2025, where sale prices exceeded market valuation estimates by over 30% [3] - The recovery in transaction volumes and declining interest rates have collectively improved the financial health of property developers, leading to a more stable operational environment [3]