TSMC(US:TSM) 智通财经网·2025-12-10 15:33Core Viewpoint - The potential export of Nvidia's H200 chip to China has sparked market speculation about improved relations between the East and West, and whether TSMC will benefit from AI GPU foundry business in China [1] Part 1: Market Concerns - Morgan Stanley identifies two key questions for investors regarding TSMC's entry into the Chinese AI market: 1. Is the West's consideration to allow H200 exports to the East aimed at improving trade relations? 2. Can East's AI chip companies achieve "downgraded designs" to qualify for TSMC's foundry services? - Morgan Stanley believes there is an opportunity for TSMC, as local Chinese chip companies are focusing on "inference scenarios" to meet foundry requirements [2] Part 2: TSMC's Confidence - Concerns about TSMC's reliance on Chinese demand are countered by the company's confidence, stating that even with limited opportunities from mainland China, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI-related business could reach around 40% over the next five years [3] - This indicates that the mainland market is seen as a supplementary opportunity rather than a critical lifeline, with existing AI business growth already supporting TSMC's valuation [3] Part 3: Nvidia B40 and Local Chip Alternatives - Morgan Stanley notes that Nvidia's B40 production is below expectations due to its lack of appeal to Chinese customers, which opens up opportunities for local chips and collaboration with TSMC [4] - Currently, China's AI inference computing relies on three types of chips: 5090 gaming graphics cards, modified Hopper chips, and locally designed chips, with demand expected to continue growing [4] Part 4: Impact on Local Foundries - If TSMC enters the Chinese AI GPU foundry market, there are concerns about demand diversion from local foundries. However, Morgan Stanley remains optimistic about SMIC, suggesting that its technology and capacity advantages will help maintain its core market share [5] - In contrast, Huahong Semiconductor may face significant pressure, particularly its HLMC's 7nm business, which could be adversely affected due to weaker competitiveness in high-end processes [6]